So i'm going to start a new series of semi-weekly posts titled "Standard Deviations". It'll be bits-and-bites of information--- likely incoherent, but it's my ill-concieved attempt to force myself to get my head out of my books and blog more.
- This weekend was almost a complete bust. Spent Saturday writing one paper, Sunday another. With finals coming up and a 5-course class load, i'm trying to clear my plate for this week so i've got ample time to cry myself to sleep over my upcoming Derivatives final.
- Weekend wasnt a complete bust--- i take that back. Had a lovely dinner with four old friends and one new one. Fantastic little Italian restaurant named Cafe Nonna. Highly recommended. Great wine good food, better people. After dinner we somehow were talked into going to one of these commercial haunted houses. The actual haunted house was nowhere near as scary as the customer base. Standing in line to get in was 100 times more frightful than the freakshow inside.
- Here's a little advice--- dont ask me what i think about the economy. It seems that since i'm in my second year of an MBA, everybody thinks i can look into some crystal ball and predict where the economy's heading in the next year. The fact is that even with an MBA, i'm only better at talking through and understanding the complexities of the free market--- the powers of prediction is not a course offered at Owen. I have a more informed opinion--- but that's it. Remember, even people who call themselves "economists" really dont have a clue. If you look the academic economist's track record, they have successfully predicted 15 of the last three recessions. Simply put--- nobody has an answer, but there are indicators.
- But like everything in economics, the answer "it depends" even applies to seemingly clear-cut signals. Take for example the fact the Canadian dollar (the loonie... i get a kick out of that). is now somewhere at/above the level of the USD. I bet in the last two weeks i've heard fifty people tell me what a bad thing this is for the economy. Really? Are you sure? If i'm an exporter of US goods, this is great news. Canada, our largest trading partner, now views US made goods as slightly "cheaper". So... is that a bad thing? The point is there's no right answer. It's kind of like predicting the weather... storm systems are made up of an infinite collection of temperatures and pressures. If I look at the barometric pressure and it's falling--- does that mean it's going to rain or shine? It doesnt, but taken into account along with all the other "inputs" into the system, you can make a pretty good guess. Same thing in economics, except there are many more variables and you can't measure many of them directly...
- A very good friend of mine sent me this link. It's a somewhat morose topic--- the last lecture of a CMU professor diagnosed with terminal cancer. However, it's a fantastic presentation and i urge everyone to take the time to watch it. It really helps you take a step back and check your bearings--- we all need to do that from time to time.
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