Although my waistline and my bathroom scale might suggest differently, I have been, for the better part of two decades, an avid cyclist. Ever since Greg LeMond first brought the Tour de France trophy to these shores, I've not only followed the sport but also tried as best I can to get out on my bike a few times a week to spin away a couple of miles.
I'd like to think that I'm a generally safe cyclist - I wear a helmet, I obey traffic laws, I don't listen to my iPod, I use hand signals (mostly non-graphically), and I largely stay out of the way of automobiles. The truth of my perceptions notwithstanding, I have lost count of the number of near death experiences foisted upon me by some motorist who is, at the very moment in question, talking on a cell phone.
I am aware, of course, of the numerous "scientific" studies that allegedly prove that driver safety and cell phone use are completely and utterly non-correlated. I am also aware that many of these studies are performed under sets of conditions fraught with enough observer effect artifacts (telling people that you're watching how carefully they drive a closed course while talking on the phone possibly makes them drive more carefully than they would otherwise) to make one question the validity of the data.
The Brits, it seems, are either unaware or unmoved by these studies. Wednesday's BBC News carried a story of the possibility of more severe penalties for motorists who call or text while driving. On Thursday, multiple sources reported that driving while operating a mobile phone now carries the maximum penalty of two years in jail. Accidents that result in death carry a life sentence.
That's right ... jail ...
The cyclist in me cheered upon reading the news. While it does very little for me (we have enough trouble getting people to follow U.S. laws, let alone British ones), it did restore my faith in the fact that someone out there, in some small way, agrees with me.
But then, as he has done on more than one occasion in the past two months, Mike Shor rained on my parade. Not directly, of course - I would hope that he has better things to do than 1) figuring out whether I'm having a parade and 2) deciding if he wants to somehow make it rain. Rather, I recalled a lecture from his Game Theory class that dealt with punishment, commitment, and believability. The bottom line is that any punishment must be strong enough to be a deterrent yet tempered enough to be believable.
Anyone who doesn't understand should go watch Dr. Strangelove, which should clear things right up.
But back to the Brits. They seem to have the severity aspect covered, but are they believable? Do people really believe that they'll be sent to jail simply for chatting away on their mobile phones? What's the probability of being caught in the first place? What's the probability of being convicted once caught? What's the probability of drawing the maximum sentence once convicted? The perceived probability of all three events happening might be so low as to make this law more cannon fodder than anything else.
Perhaps they could take a page from the Clayton Act, or perhaps a page from the FTC's playbook, or perhaps some other strategy to increase the perception that prosecution is an actual possibility?
I don't know the answers to these questions. I suppose time will tell whether this law is indeed useful or simply more words on the page.
UPDATED 12/28:
The Boston Globe reported this morning that a man lost control of his SUV while typing a text message and killed a 13 year old boy. Even worse was the fact that he apparently didn't realize he had hit someone until hours later.
** FULL DISCLOSURE: I think Game Theory is an excellent class and should be taken by every MBA student everywhere. As a matter of fact, I think every MBA student everywhere should take it from Mike Shor, grading complications notwithstanding.
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